Goldman Sachs boosted its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500 from 4000, implying a roughly 5% upside from the broad stock index’s closing level on Friday.

Though market breadth has been narrow and the recent stock rally has been led by a handful of megacap tech shares, Goldman anticipates a “catch up” is more likely than not based on the firm’s below-consensus recession odds and above-consensus earnings expectations.

What could challenge Goldman’s market forecast? “The major downside risks to our S&P 500 outlook include an unexpected downturn in growth and stubborn inflation that triggers a hawkish Fed pivot,” analysts said in a Friday note.