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A bundle of measures gauging the health of the U.S. economy fell back a little at the end of last year, reversing the boost that emerged following Donald Trump’s victory in elections to the White House.
The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published Wednesday by research group The Conference Board, dropped 0.1% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November. That was in line with the expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Anemic demand in manufacturing, weakening in the jobs market, a decline in construction permits and low consumer confidence all contributed to the deterioration, The Conference Board’s Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said.
Other measures were positive, however, including the contribution from the stock market.
“We expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year,” Zabinska-La Monica said.
The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. The indicator is based on 10 components, among them manufacturers’ new orders, initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits of new private housing units, stock prices and consumer expectations. It is intended to signal swings in the business cycle.