A key measure of investors’ inflation expectations has climbed in recent weeks, adding fuel to concerns about rising consumer prices.
As of Thursday, the gauge known as the 10-year break-even rate suggested that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.64% over the next decade, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED. That is up from a recent low of 2.28% in late September and the highest level since 2012.
The break-even rate is found by looking at the difference in yields between nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. The rate is so called because TIPS holders can earn the same return as holders of nominal Treasurys if average annual CPI inflation matches that gap over the life of the bonds.
Rising break-even rates worry some investors because the move suggests current inflation pressure.